Analysts anticipate a slight return of economic growth in 2011, after two years of recession, with an expected increase in GDP of about 0.2 to 2%. Ionuţ Dumitru, at Raiffeisen Bank which have the most optimistic forecast for 2011 anticipates an increase of 2% of GDP. However, if Romania leaves behind the recession, the stirrings of growth will not be felt in everyday’s life.
The economic recovery remains fragile, if we consider fiscal adjustment implemented in the middle of 2010, rising unemployment and reducing the reduction in capital flows. And the key factors for a sustainable economic recovery is investment in infrastructure and structural reforms.
Regarding the role of the state in economic recovery, analysts recommend to ensure predictability, and reduce taxation to attract foreign investment. Lucian Anghel, BCR economist, mentions several strategic projects of national importance, which should be distinguished and spared from budget cuts and that would help restore investor confidence.
Will the forecast be realized? Official forecasts for 2010 have changed during 2010 from an increase of 1.3% of GDP in early 2010, to a decrease of 0.5% in late May 2010 and a fall of 1.9% at the end of the year…